The island-average rainfall for Antigua was near normal; it was 126.2 mm (4.97 in). Additionally, there was one 5-day wet spell at the V. C. Bird International Airport (VCBIA). Meanwhile, there was no 7-day dry spell.
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for September indicates that conditions over the past 30 days were normal across Antigua. For the 3-month period, from July to September, conditions ranged from normal in the southwestern to moderatelydry in the rest of the island. Over the 6-month period, from April to September, precipitation levels were generally normal island-wide, with slightlywet conditions observed in the southwest. Map 1 illustrates drought conditions across Antigua during
the past 3 months, highlighting areas affected by short-term moderate drought.
We are currently experiencing a short-term drought spanning the past four months; hence, a droughtwarning is in effect. Conditions are forecast to improve by the end of January, though they are expected to return to within the normal range.
Map1.AntiguaShort-termDroughtConditions
ShortTermDroughtLongTermDrought
Anticipated level of drought concern, based on the 6- month SPI for August 2025 to January 2026, is DroughtWatch for moderate or worse 6-month short-term drought by the end of January.
Anticipated level of drought concern, based on the 12-month SPI for December 2024 to November 2025, is NoConcern of moderate or worse long-term drought by the end of November.
- protect resources
- conserve and recycle water
- implement management plans
- release public service announcements
- last-minute infrastructural repairs and upgrades
- report impacts
Note1: Due to the limited available data for Barbuda, it cannot be determined whether the warning should also apply to that island; conditions are being monitored for any signs of water stress.
Note2: The SPI values were estimated for the V. C. Bird International Airport, Green Castle and Cobbs Cross Stations and the SPI forecast values were estimated from Antigua Rainfall Estimated Time Series.
KeyTerms:
Dryday: a day with less than 1 mm of rainfall
Dryspell: a period of consecutive dry days.
ShortTermDrought: Dry conditions lasting 1 to 6 consecutive months.
Long-TermDrought: Dry conditions persisting for more than 6 consecutive months.
SPI: https://rcc.cimh.edu.bb/spi-monitor/
ModerateDrought: Dry conditions for at least three consecutive months with SPI values of less than or equal to -0.8.
Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service, in collaboration with the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), which hosts the WMO-designated Caribbean Regional Climate Center; and Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF).
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