Meteorological consultancy and forecasting service, 268Weather, has revised its 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast downward, now projecting 12 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes for the season, as forecasters point to the growing likelihood of a very strong El Niño developing during the peak months.
Hurricane Season Trending Quieter
The update, issued by meteorologist Dale Destin of 268Weather, reflects a continued shift toward below-normal activity, though the outlook still gives roughly equal odds of the season finishing above, near or below normal.
According to the forecast, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index — a measure of the season’s overall strength — is now projected at 99, down 10 points from the previous outlook. The number of named storms was lowered by two, hurricanes by two, and major hurricanes by one.
Destin attributed the downgrade primarily to strengthening El Niño conditions, which historically suppress Atlantic hurricane activity. He noted however that uncertainty remains, “especially with reference to Saharan dust,” adding that excessive dust could suppress the season even further.
The forecast places a 35 percent probability on an above-normal season, 33 percent on a near-normal season, and 32 percent on a below-normal season, based on ACE thresholds measured against the 1991–2020 climatological average.
Despite the lower numbers, 268Weather cautioned residents against complacency. The report noted that a below-normal season does not equate to below-normal risk, stressing that it takes only one landfalling hurricane to cause significant damage.
Forecasters said the bulk of seasonal activity (nearly 90 percent) is still expected between August and October, the traditional peak of the season. The sub-seasonal outlook for that period calls for nine named storms, three hurricanes and two major hurricanes, with an ACE of 87.
268Weather’s forecast is generated using a statistical methodology that draws on sea surface temperature data from multiple global climate models, and is updated monthly through August as new oceanic and atmospheric data become available.
Residents of Antigua and Barbuda and the wider Caribbean are being urged to maintain hurricane preparedness measures throughout the season, regardless of the reduced forecast numbers.
