Pressure Risks – By Kisean Joseph
Pressure Risks Splitting Caricom
A leading United States foreign policy expert is warning that Washington’s approach to the Caribbean is deliberately designed to fracture CARICOM unity — and that small island states which break ranks with the bloc risk trading long-term sovereignty for short-term rewards that may never materialize.
Jake Johnston, Director of International Research at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) in Washington, D.C., made the remarks during an interview on Observer AM on Tuesday. Johnston, a recognized authority on U.S. foreign policy in the hemisphere, said the strategy extends well beyond the Caribbean.
“If you do what we want, if you show your fealty to the United States, we’re willing to give you things, we’re willing to invite you into the room. If not, at best, you’re sort of left on the side. At worst, you can face real threats, real harm, real punishment,” Johnston said.
“This is about supporting friends and saying, hey, friends get inside the room, and if you don’t, well, you’re left on the outside,” he said.
Johnston drew parallels with the first Trump administration’s efforts to break CARICOM’s voting bloc at the Organisation of American States during the 2019 Venezuela crisis, warning that history appeared to be repeating itself. He noted that promises made to Caribbean nations during that period largely failed to materialize and cautioned that the current administration’s pledges warranted similar skepticism.
On the question of CARICOM sovereignty, Johnston was direct. He described recent U.S. military strikes in regional waters as illegal under both domestic American law and international law, and said no investigation was needed to establish that fact.
“These are illegal strikes. We don’t need an investigation to determine that. They’re illegal under U.S. law, they’re illegal under international law. So that’s not really up for debate,” he said.
Johnston acknowledged that CARICOM leaders faced real consequences for speaking out, pointing to visa restrictions, trade pressures, and tariff threats as tools this administration had shown willingness to deploy. However, he argued that the region’s greatest leverage had always been its collective strength and that individual deals with Washington came at the expense of that power.
“We’re talking about small island nations that really are more powerful collectively than individually. And that is the strength of CARICOM,” Johnston said. “In the long run, there are collective interests, there are community interests across the Caribbean, and unless the Caribbean can fight collectively for those things, it’s going to be extremely difficult to achieve them.”
Johnston also addressed the deepening crisis in Cuba, describing the U.S. fuel blockade as a form of collective punishment that was illegal under international law and causing severe human suffering. He rejected the notion that humanitarian aid alone could resolve the situation, arguing that what Cuba needed was fuel — and that CARICOM’s pledge of material support, whilst welcome, did not address the root cause.
On Antigua and Barbuda’s visa concerns, Johnston declined to forecast a thaw in relations but expressed cautious optimism about the longer-term trajectory. He noted that the current administration’s use of immigration and visa policy as a political weapon — most recently threatening Chile over its fibre optic cable dealings with China — demonstrated just how far Washington was prepared to go to achieve its objectives.
Johnston urged CARICOM to explore all available legal avenues, including the OAS, the International Criminal Court, and the broader United Nations system, to build international awareness and pushback against what he described as the U.S. testing the boundaries of international law.
“This is the U.S. pushing the boundaries of international law, seeing how far they can go, seeing what they can get away with, and sending a message to the world that we’re a powerful country and we’re going to do whatever we want,” he said.
Despite the sobering assessment, Johnston said he remained optimistic about the future of the relationship between the Caribbean and the United States — insisting the current posture was unsustainable and not in the interest of either side.
